Who Killed Recycling?

June 12, 2018

June 12, 2018


Who Killed Recycling?


Today’s Guest Blog is by Chaz Miller. It was originally published in Waste360 on June 01, 2018.

 

The harm to recycling has been inflicted by recycling’s friends, not its enemies.


Recycling is in the dumps. The Chinese government’s decision to ban mixed plastic and mixed paper recyclables imports sent recycling markets into a tailspin. Media outlets are running stories of recyclables going to disposal instead of end markets. Worse yet, this turbulence is likely to continue for another year or longer. Recycling will survive this storm as it has survived others, but will we learn from it or will we continue to repeat our mistakes?


When I started to write this column, my idea was to focus on who “killed” recycling. Yet the reality is that very few people actually tried to kill recycling. Instead, the harm has been inflicted by its friends, not its enemies.


Nonetheless, let’s start with recycling’s “enemies.” Both private and public sector disposal facility owners supposedly see recycling as unnecessary competition that diverts material from their facilities. In addition, the “anti-recyclers” have always opposed mandatory recycling programs for philosophical reasons.


Both suspects have solid alibis. Virtually all of the local governments and companies that own disposal facilities are fully integrated with garbage collection and recycling operations. They know that recycling programs can be profitable when markets are good. More importantly, their commercial and residential waste collection customers demand a recycling program. Companies don’t stay in business long if they ignore their customers. Local governments, too, have to offer a recycling program when their residents demand it. However, the cyclical nature of commodity markets means bad markets make recycling unprofitable. Like garbage collection and disposal, recycling is a service that must be paid for regardless of whether markets are good or bad. As for the anti-recyclers, they can kick up a storm, but they have little political power. 


So, who are the friends who inadvertently helped create this mess? They are the state legislators, environmental officials and recycling advocates who supported unrealistic recycling goals without taking into account the need for end markets, the risk of commodity price fluctuations and the reality of what it takes to change human behavior. 


Too many state legislators voted for laws mandating aggressive diversion or recycling goals without first finding out if those goals were achievable. If they were going to set a 50 percent or higher recycling goal, why didn’t they analyze what could be recycled, at what rate, from which generators before passing the law? Instead, they kicked that bucket to their state recycling officials and to local governments and businesses. 


Recycling advocates, whether in state government or advocacy groups, either ignored or downplayed the obstacles to achieving recycling goals. All too often, a sort of magical thinking prevailed that said if a law is passed, markets would appear and people would automatically recycle. We were so determined to increase recycling, we thought that all that was needed was a state law or local ordinance and success would follow. 


Advocates need to be ruthlessly realistic about the difficulties of changing human behavior so that we don’t just recycle, we recycle right. Recycling advocates need to back up their efforts with real data based on existing and potential markets and the realities of human behavior. The time for rosy scenarios is over.


Waste and recycling companies and public officials failed to ensure their customers, and residents knew that recycling is not free. Sometimes the cost of recycling was hidden in waste management bills or fees instead of being spelled out. Whether this was done by the collectors or by local governments doesn’t matter. The damage was done.


China also helped cause this mess. Buyers create the specification that counts. If they willingly pay for bales of paper that are full of plastics and other contaminants, they are encouraging sellers to ship dirty bales. For years, Chinese mills were knowingly buying bales that did not meet industry specifications and using cheap labor to clean them up. They created a race to the bottom.


Finally, the American public, you and I, share responsibility. We demand that our wastes be recycled. We tell pollsters we want to buy recyclable products and have a green environment. Yet we can’t seem to be bothered to recycle right. We fail to place the right materials in our home recycling bins. We throw trash in recycling bins in businesses, airports and public spaces because we are in a hurry. Human nature is complicated. We all need to become more open about our fallibilities as recyclers and design programs with realistic goals and collection options that entice recycling right. 


Is recycling dying? No. But to successfully sustain recycling programs and to spring back from the current market mess, we need to become realistic about the problems facing recycling. We need to start setting goals based on real-world analysis, not subjective wishfulness. We need to create a business atmosphere that encourages the development of viable manufacturing facilities that can be substantial recycling markets. Recycling can succeed if we acknowledge its costs, set realistic goals and design our programs to accommodate human behavior. Why not start now?


Chaz Miller is a longtime veteran of the waste and recycling industry. He is also an Ex Officio member of NERC’s Board of Directors.

NERC welcomes Guest Blog submissions. To inquire about submitting articles contact Athena Lee Bradley, Projects Manager at athena(at)nerc.org. Disclaimer: Guest blogs represent the opinion of the writers and may not reflect the policy or position of the Northeast Recycling Council, Inc.

Share Post

By Chaz Miller January 5, 2026
2025 was not a good year for recycling markets. Prices went down for everything in your bin. The only real difference is how badly each material got hit and why. Let’s start with paper, the most important recyclable in terms of weight and volume. Old Corrugated Container (OCC, boxes) prices started rising in the spring of 2023, peaking for several months in the summer of 2024. A long slide then began and lasted for almost all of 2025. Prices for Residential Mixed Paper (RMP) did the same. Nationally, OCC is now at $46.88 per ton and RMP is $20.31 a ton. OCC went down by a third while RMP went down by half. The “good” news is that these prices have been lower in the last five years. RMP, after all, had a negative value early in 2020 and then for a few months in late 2022. (All prices in this article are national prices from RecyclingMarkets.net as of December 31). The 2023 rise and then fall of recycled paper prices was the result of increased capacity to use OCC and RMP as raw materials along with declining overall demand for boxes. New recycled content paper capacity started coming online in 2017, peaking in 2023 when five new mills opened. Those new mills, eager to build up supply lines, caused prices to go up. Existing capacity had no choice but to also pay more. At the same time, demand for new boxes was going down. In fact, box demand has been going down for four years. Something had to give. In 2025, nine existing paper mills announced they would be closing. Old, more expensive, and less efficient to operate, they couldn’t compete with the new mills. All four plastic resins lost value but the impact varied by resin. Natural HDPE, (mostly milk jugs) lost a third of its value. Polypropylene (mostly dairy products) went down by 40 percent. Color HDPE (consumer products such as detergent and shampoo) went down by 48 percent and PET beverage bottles went down by two thirds. Natural HDPE is 46.81 cents a pound. Even at the lower price, this resin remains in a good price range. PET and polypropylene are both 5.38 cents a pound. Recycled PET rose steadily from the summer of 2023 to the summer of 2024. Then it declined equally steadily until it reached a record low of 4.19 cents in early October of this year. Cheap recycled resin imports, too much domestic virgin PET resin and lower summer beverage demand gave prices nowhere to go but down. Recycled PET resin imports are now subject to tariffs, which may be responsible for its recent increase. Nonetheless, its price remains in the doldrums. Polypropylene generally has a low price except when new capacity is coming online and building up capacity. For 46 of the 72 months since January 2020, its price has been less than a dime a pound. For 17 months, it’s been at its current not very good price or less. Color HDPE is 2.81 cents a pound. This resin depends on construction markets because the color can’t be taken out of the resin. New housing starts have been in decline for four years. It also set a record low price in 2025. Aluminum and steel cans are recycling market’s happy place. Their prices went down by 9.3 and 8.7 percent. Aluminum cans have a national average price of 78.75 cents while steel cans go for $158.75 a ton. Over the last few years, the aluminum industry smartly expanded into non-alcoholic beverages such as water and fruit juices. Those new uses keep demand up. After sliding last year, steel can prices stabilized. As for glass, it’s price rarely changes. Clear glass bottles go for $38.56 a ton, brown for $27.19 and green for $10.31. Those prices all rose slightly in the spring of 2023. Mixed glass from single stream curbside collection has a “negative tipping fee” of $25.31 a ton. In other words, the MRF pays the end market to buy it. That price became slightly more negative this year. The glass industry has been in decline for some time, a victim of lighter weight aluminum cans and plastic bottles. In addition, Americans are drinking less alcohol. That’s the biggest user of glass bottles. Our beleaguered economy is hurting recycling markets. Recyclables are just raw materials looking for a buyer. Those buyers are purchasing managers making a bet on how much raw materials they will need for their companies’ products. This can be, say, aluminum cans, boxes to ship those empty cans to beverage companies or boxes to deliver filled cans to retail outlets. When buyers are optimistic, they buy more. In 2025, they were gloomy. Prices of all of these recyclables have been hurt by declining unit sales of consumer products and the resulting decline in box demand. We are in a “ K-shaped” economic recovery from the pandemic. This means the recovery’s impact varied by economic status. Wealthy households now account for half of consumer spending on goods and services. They spend more on “services” such as trips and entertainment than on goods. Lower income households, however, are squeezed between paying for necessities such as housing, health care, insurance and food before everything else. They are pinching their nickels and looking for bargains. Simply stated, due to the K-shaped recovery, sales are down and we need fewer packages and shipping boxes. So what will happen in 2026? The loss of so much older paper capacity is bringing demand and supply back into a better balance. Look for prices to rebound a bit. Plastic prices will remain soft barring a reversal of the K-shaped recovery. PET prices, have the most potential if beverage demand returns. Color HDPE, will remain in the doldrums until new housing construction increases. Natural HDPE will stay where it is or go up a bit. Polypropylene will probably stay where it is. As for glass, change isn’t likely. I realize that’s not optimistic. Given the projected rise in health, insurance and energy costs this year, Americans will still be pinching pennies. Box production will decline as unit sales fall. Our K-shaped economy needs to become a rising economic tide lifting all boats. Recyclables, afterall, are commodities subject to the economy’s ups and downs. When our economy truly rebounds, recycling markets will thrive again. Read on Waste360.
By Waste Dive December 9, 2025
MRFs in the Northeast United States reported a decrease in average prices for nearly all recycled commodities — with glass and bulky rigids providing the rare bright spot — during the third quarter of 2025, according to a report from the Northeast Recycling Council. This continues the downward trend reported in the region since Q2. In Q3, average blended commodity value without residuals was $75.14, a decrease of 21.9% from the previous quarter. When calculating the value with residuals, prices were $60.16, a decrease of 27.24%, says the quarterly MRF Commodity Values Survey Report. Single-stream MRFs saw values decrease sequentially by 23.32% without residuals and 28.86% with residuals. Dual-stream or source-separated MRFs saw decreases of 17.33% without residuals and 21.76% with residuals compared to last quarter. The report includes information from 19 MRFs representing 12 states: Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Virginia. The NERC report is meant to offer a regional look at price trends and is a part of the group’s ongoing work to promote and boost recycled commodity supply and demand in the Northeast. It surveys a variety of MRFs in numerous markets, including those in five states with beverage container deposit laws, which it says affect material flows into MRFs. NERC says its reports are not meant to be used as a price guide for MRF contracts because it “represents the diversity of operating conditions in these locations.” NERC adopted a new report format at the beginning of 2025 that now provides average prices for specific commodities in addition to aggregate values. According to the Q3 report, most commodity categories fell significantly, with the exception of glass and the “special case of bulky rigids.” The average price for bulky rigids in the quarter was $43.26, a 93% increase from the previous quarter. NERC did not offer insight into the increase. The average price for PET was $125.58 in the quarter, down 60%, while prices for Natural HDPE fetched about $955.31 a ton, down 46%. OCC saw an average price of about $86.23, down 10%, according to the report. Major publicly-traded waste companies echoed similar commodity trends during their Q3 earnings calls . Casella, which operates in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, reported that its average recycled commodity revenue per ton was down 29% year over year in Q3. To reduce the impact from low commodity values, the company typically shares risk with customers by adjusting tip fees in down markets. Recent upgrades at a Connecticut MRF helped raise revenue for processing volumes in the quarter, executives said. Meanwhile, Republic Services is planning to build a polymer center for processing recycled plastic in Allentown, Pennsylvania, next year. During the Q3 earnings call in October, executives said they expect strong demand at such centers from both a pricing and volume standpoint, despite the decline in commodity prices. The company already has similar polymer centers in Indianapolis and Las Vegas, which consume curbside-collected plastics from Republic’s recycling centers and produce products such as clear, hot-wash PET flake and sorted bales of other plastics. Read on Waste Dive.
By Megan Fontes December 4, 2025
NERC’s Material Recovery Facilities (MRF) Commodity Values Survey Report for the period July - September 2025 showed a continued decline in the average commodity prices for Q3 2025. The average value of all commodities decreased by 21.90% without residuals to $75.14 and by 27.24% with residuals to $60.16, as compared to last quarter. Single stream decreased by 23.32% without residuals and 28.86% with residuals, while dual stream / source separated decreased by 17.33% without residuals and 21.76% with residuals compared to last quarter. Dual stream MRFs saw a slightly smaller decrease with residuals than single stream. Individual commodity price averages this quarter denote the decrease felt across all commodity categories apart from glass and the special case of bulky rigids.