The Good, the Bad and the Meh: Midsummer Recycling Markets

Chaz Miller • July 22, 2024

Chaz Miller

July 22, 2024


A bit more than halfway through the year, MRF recycling markets are blowing hot, cold, and indifferent. On the hot side are old corrugated containers (OCC), residential mixed paper (RMP), PET bottles, and aluminum cans. Steel cans and colored HDPE bottles are cold. Natural HDPE bottles and polypropylene (PP) packaging are kind of meh. At least prices aren’t as volatile as the summer of 2021 when most recyclables set record highs only to watch them disappear.


Let’s start with the hot markets. PET bottle and aluminum can markets reflect changes in seasonal demand for beverages. Beer, soda pop and bottled water sales are highest between Memorial and Labor Days. In the spring, when purchasing agents start stepping up their orders for these packages, supply is low. The increased demand drives up prices. Similarly, in midsummer, prices start to go down as supply exceeds anticipated post-Labor Day demand.


Currently, the national price for a bale of PET bottles is 17.41 cents per pound, about 50 percent higher than it was at the beginning of the year (note: all MRF bale prices are from RecyclingMarkets.net as of July 19). Aluminum cans are currently just a hair under 76 cents a pound, about a 25 percent increase in value. MRFs are benefitting from strong prices from both packages. Nonetheless, they will go down soon, as they usually do.


National prices remain strong for both OCC and RMP. The average price for old boxes is $107.50 a ton. Those prices started rising at the beginning of 2023. Their value has more than tripled since then. RMP has grown to a current value of $70.63 a ton from a negative value of -$1.50 a ton in November 2022. Prices for both have flattened out. They provide a strong base for MRF revenue.


Recycled paper prices remained strong over the last year in spite of unusual demand and supply realities. Demand for OCC and RMP is up because the paper packaging industry has experienced a rapid increase in its capacity to use recycled paper. All six facilities with new capacity in 2023 and this year are located east of the Mississippi as is a majority of the new capacity since the surge started in 2018. New and existing capacity are competing for supply, driving prices up and looking for paper further away from their mills than normal. At the same time lower paper exports have eased pressure on prices.


Supply of OCC and RMP is not keeping up with demand because inflation lowered unit sales of most consumer products. This leads to fewer boxes needed to transport those products to stores and to be available for recycling. While you and I have more boxes due to increased e-commerce, we don’t have as many as anticipated when the new capacity was being planned. The e-commerce companies are using fewer and smaller boxes to lower their costs. And when we get them, we aren’t as good at recycling them as stores. That supply shortage is keeping prices up.


To further complicate matters, due to unanticipated lower demand for their end product, a number of paper mills took “economic downtime” and temporarily stopped production until sales picked up. This includes some of the new capacity. Worse yet, the McKinley Paper Company mill in Port Angeles, Washington, which opened in 2020, recently announced it is closing. High raw material costs and sluggish demand for its products were blamed. The mill made linerboard and corrugated medium for boxes and other paper packaging.

OCC and RMP markets could stay at their current level for a while. Seasonal holiday box demand will be kicking in soon. When that is over, lower prices are likely.


The cold markets are colored HDPE and steel cans. Colored HDPE resin is primarily used for construction-related products such as water and sewer pipes because the dyes used to color the resin can’t be taken out. A year ago, the price was unusually low at 7.13 cents a pound. Then it steadily rose to 23.94 cents per pound in May before falling to 11.56 cents per pound. Colored HDPE’s price often reflects housing construction trends. New housing permits and construction starts are falling due to high housing costs. Prices will pick up when construction picks up.


Over the past year, steel can prices fell by a quarter to $152.81 per ton. Electric arc furnaces, the predominant steel making technology in the U.S., feast on any type of scrap steel. When Baltimore’s new Key Bridge is built, I hope that some of my steel cans will be in it. For now, however, steel markets are soft due to lack of demand.


That leaves us with the “meh” of natural HDPE (primarily milk jugs) and PP (primarily yogurt containers). Prices are low, but the packages are being recycled. HDPE is commonly used for detergent and shampoo bottles and many other packages. It can be dyed whatever color the package uses. A year ago, the major buyer for recycled natural HDPE stopped buying. Prices collapsed by 237 percent to 22.22 cents a pound. Since then, they have slowly increased. Still, at 37.19 cents per pound it only recently rose above its April 2020 low point. The price will get back to its normally higher levels when consumer brands decide they really want recycled content.


At 6.5 cents per pound, PP (primarily yogurt containers), is the least valuable plastic package in the bin. Its markets are primarily nonpackaging durable plastics. Sales of those products have been flat for some time, so has PP’s low price.



I’ve been tracking recycling markets for some time. Current markets are the most unusual – heck, the weirdest – I’ve seen. Part of that is COVID’s ongoing impact on the economy. Part is the stunning increase in paper recycled content capacity. Part is the ability of e-commerce companies to reduce their need for boxes. Part is the off and on demand for recycled plastic by consumer product companies. Sooner or later, this will all resolve itself. Until then, enjoy the ride.

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By Sophie Leone October 21, 2025
The Town of Stonington in Connecticut has a history dating back to the 1640’s. Today the town features an active community with miles of beach, historic homes, and a dedication to sustainability. Ensuring continued connection to the community, the Town holds over 30 boards, commissions, and committees that help regulate and advise the surrounding area. These Boards include Affordable Housing, Conservation Commission, Cultural District, Water Pollution Control, and more. Stonington is a member of the Southeastern Connecticut Regional Resources Recovery Authority (SCRRRA). Being a member of SCRRRA provides the Town with cost savings on solid waste and recycling, access to specialized disposal services, public education programs, and grant opportunities. The regional approach to waste management gives Stonington and other member towns greater negotiating power and access to resources that would be more difficult to obtain alone. The Town of Stonington is committed to advancing sustainability and responsible resource management within our community. Through initiatives such as Pay-As-You-Throw curbside trash collection, textile and electronics recycling, and household hazardous waste events, they work to reduce waste and promote reuse. Stonington continues to expand its sustainability programs by exploring food scrap diversion and supporting regional collaborations that protect our environment and conserve natural resources. “As a proud new member of the Northeast Recycling Council, we look forward to sharing ideas and strengthening our community’s impact through innovation and partnership.” NERC is thrilled to welcome the Town of Stonington to our growing list of municipality members. We look forward to working with them to help continued education and accessibility for local recycling efforts For more information on the Town of Stonington visit .
By Cole Rosengren October 15, 2025
Stress levels are high for CPG companies and packaging groups as extended producer responsibility programs unfold in multiple states. This was on display at three recent Boston events hosted by the Sustainable Packaging Coalition, How2Recycle and the Northeast Recycling Council, with questions flying about costs, policy harmonization and relationships with regulators. Paul Nowak, executive director of GreenBlue, adopted the role of support group leader for a room full of representatives from many of the world’s largest CPG companies in his opening talk at SPC Advance. He reminded them that “you are not alone” and urged them to take the long view on this major industry shift. “What you see at the end of the change is not what you see during the change,” said Nowak, drawing on examples from prior industry shifts as well as other major life events. “You are in this uncomfortable period right now where it’s not moving as rapidly as you would think and you don’t have the historic perspective yet of where it could go.” Sticker shock While CPGs are familiar with EPR costs from programs in other countries, the complexity and scale of the U.S. rollout in seven states is presenting its own unique challenges. Oregon is the only state that’s begun collecting fees, and already the costs are high. Circular Action Alliance, the producer responsibility organization selected for the majority of state programs to date, estimates a budget of $188 million in the program’s first year, with that figure growing in the years ahead. Charlie Schwarze, board chair for CAA and senior director of packaging stewardship at Keurig Dr Pepper, said the costs are starting to resonate with major companies. KDP, for example, has been working to sort out different aspects of its packaging in terms of licensing arrangements, private label manufacturing partnerships and other factors. This requires a close relationship with the company’s finance, R&D and procurement teams to gather data and make cost projections. “It’s been a bit of a slow-moving process because the dollars, at least in 2025, are not extremely notable. But they’re going to get bigger pretty quickly,” he said, citing Colorado and California’s programs on the horizon. Shane Buckingham, chief of staff at CAA, said it will be months until companies have a better sense of the true costs. 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In her view, avoided fees through ecomodulation could be viewed as “possible new investment capital” for covering the costs of material switches, R&D, MRF testing, consumer education campaigns and more. “We can innovate to those lower fees by switching to incentivized materials and formats and then we can reinvest the savings back into sustainable materials and infrastructure that seemed out of reach,” she said. Searching for harmony All three events also featured ample discussion about if or how aspects of current EPR programs could be better aligned. While regulators are working to align certain definitions where possible, they also noted that certain state programs were uniquely designed for a reason. David Allaway, senior policy analyst at the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, said during NERC’s Rethink Resource Use Conference that he sees a potential benefit to harmonizing ecomodulation approaches in some cases. But at the same time, he said, “I fear that the push for harmonization will lead to a race to the bottom” by potentially limiting the ability for states to craft policies based on their respective needs. As for those who critique other unique aspects of Oregon’s law, such as responsible end market requirements , Allaway said “that’s not negotiable for us,” as market issues were a leading motivation for the law in the first place. Allaway said Oregon’s system was established based on specific regional priorities, such as putting an end to exporting certain types of material that led to dumping in other countries. The state’s approach to ecomodulation and life cycle analysis is also informed by years of work on greenhouse gas inventories and consumption-based accounting, which challenges many commonly held assumptions about recyclability . Each state has its own unique factors in terms of collection access and market infrastructure. Colorado, for example, has many areas that will be getting recycling service for the first time. Maine also has many rural areas that previously had access to recycling but lost it in recent years. Meanwhile, in Maryland, collection service may be more common but local end markets are lacking for certain commodities. Jason Bergquist, vice president of consulting firm RecycleMe, said during the NERC event that he hears concerns from clients about where this is all headed. “If we get to a couple years down the road and we’ve got, let’s just pretend, 25 states with EPR, with different deadlines, different [covered material] lists, different definitions, different ecomodulation — my concern as a fan of EPR is that the pushback will be so significant that it could get existential for the producers,” he said, in terms of costs and compliance management. At the same time, Bergquist said the experiences of packaging EPR in Europe and Canada show it may take years to get toward any kind of harmonized system. Back at SPC Advance and the co-located How2Recycle Summit, California loomed large throughout the week when it came to these questions. Karen Kayfetz, chief of CalRecycle’s product stewardship branch, said regulators from different EPR states try to talk to one another as much as possible but in some cases they’re limited by the statutes that created these programs. “We each have our own legal frameworks we have to work within,” she said. “So harmonization starts with the legislatures, and that is not our responsibility, but it is something that we could see change and evolve over the coming years.” As all of these complex questions get worked out, Kayfetz reminded attendees that CalRecycle may currently be “the face” of the program but that’s not the long-term goal. “What would make me the happiest is if you leave here thinking ‘let’s go talk more to CAA.’ Because EPR is a policy mechanism that is meant to be a public-private partnership where the public entity ... is overseeing the PRO,” she said. “They are your partner and we are their police.” In a separate session, CAA’s Buckingham described the work of ramping up different state fee and reporting programs as building a plane while flying it. The group is working to streamline its own reporting processes as much as possible, but they and others anticipate things will only get more complicated in the near term. “2026 will bring with it a new set of EPR laws and recycled content laws,” predicted KDP’s Schwarze, “and they’re going to be different than what we have right now.” Read on Packaging Dive.
September 17, 2025
The City of Medford won the 2025 Environmental Leadership Award for Outstanding Community presented by the Northeast Recycling Council, for its innovative work to reduce waste and create a more sustainable waste collection system through the City’s free curbside composting program. “I'm thankful to our team at City Hall, the Solid Waste Taskforce, our consultants Strategy Zero Waste and our volunteers for working so hard to launch our curbside composting program and making it such a meaningful success for our community,” Mayor Breanna Lungo-Koehn said. “This award shows that the work we’re doing in both composting and recycling is having real, transformative effects on how our community thinks about waste and the steps we’re taking to create a more sustainable environment for the future. We are honored to be recognized by the Northeast Recycling Council for these efforts.” Each year, NERC honors a community, an organization, and an individual for their outstanding contributions to recycling education and innovation. This year will mark the 9th annual Environmental Leadership Awards Ceremony, recognizing individuals and organizations who help further NERC’s waste and recycling goals. “Our committee is wholeheartedly impressed by the work of the City of Medford, and how important and impactful that work is for the community,” said Sophie Leone, Development and Program Manager at NERC. “It is a perfect representation of NERC’s mission to minimize waste, conserve natural resources, and advance a sustainable economy through facilitated collaboration and action and we are very excited to bestow the City of Medford with this award.” You can read more about the Environmental Leadership Awards here . And if you haven’t signed up for Medford’s free curbside composting program, you can do that at medfordcomposts.com . Read on MedfordMA.org.