The Good, the Bad and the Meh: Midsummer Recycling Markets

Chaz Miller • July 22, 2024

Chaz Miller

July 22, 2024


A bit more than halfway through the year, MRF recycling markets are blowing hot, cold, and indifferent. On the hot side are old corrugated containers (OCC), residential mixed paper (RMP), PET bottles, and aluminum cans. Steel cans and colored HDPE bottles are cold. Natural HDPE bottles and polypropylene (PP) packaging are kind of meh. At least prices aren’t as volatile as the summer of 2021 when most recyclables set record highs only to watch them disappear.


Let’s start with the hot markets. PET bottle and aluminum can markets reflect changes in seasonal demand for beverages. Beer, soda pop and bottled water sales are highest between Memorial and Labor Days. In the spring, when purchasing agents start stepping up their orders for these packages, supply is low. The increased demand drives up prices. Similarly, in midsummer, prices start to go down as supply exceeds anticipated post-Labor Day demand.


Currently, the national price for a bale of PET bottles is 17.41 cents per pound, about 50 percent higher than it was at the beginning of the year (note: all MRF bale prices are from RecyclingMarkets.net as of July 19). Aluminum cans are currently just a hair under 76 cents a pound, about a 25 percent increase in value. MRFs are benefitting from strong prices from both packages. Nonetheless, they will go down soon, as they usually do.


National prices remain strong for both OCC and RMP. The average price for old boxes is $107.50 a ton. Those prices started rising at the beginning of 2023. Their value has more than tripled since then. RMP has grown to a current value of $70.63 a ton from a negative value of -$1.50 a ton in November 2022. Prices for both have flattened out. They provide a strong base for MRF revenue.


Recycled paper prices remained strong over the last year in spite of unusual demand and supply realities. Demand for OCC and RMP is up because the paper packaging industry has experienced a rapid increase in its capacity to use recycled paper. All six facilities with new capacity in 2023 and this year are located east of the Mississippi as is a majority of the new capacity since the surge started in 2018. New and existing capacity are competing for supply, driving prices up and looking for paper further away from their mills than normal. At the same time lower paper exports have eased pressure on prices.


Supply of OCC and RMP is not keeping up with demand because inflation lowered unit sales of most consumer products. This leads to fewer boxes needed to transport those products to stores and to be available for recycling. While you and I have more boxes due to increased e-commerce, we don’t have as many as anticipated when the new capacity was being planned. The e-commerce companies are using fewer and smaller boxes to lower their costs. And when we get them, we aren’t as good at recycling them as stores. That supply shortage is keeping prices up.


To further complicate matters, due to unanticipated lower demand for their end product, a number of paper mills took “economic downtime” and temporarily stopped production until sales picked up. This includes some of the new capacity. Worse yet, the McKinley Paper Company mill in Port Angeles, Washington, which opened in 2020, recently announced it is closing. High raw material costs and sluggish demand for its products were blamed. The mill made linerboard and corrugated medium for boxes and other paper packaging.

OCC and RMP markets could stay at their current level for a while. Seasonal holiday box demand will be kicking in soon. When that is over, lower prices are likely.


The cold markets are colored HDPE and steel cans. Colored HDPE resin is primarily used for construction-related products such as water and sewer pipes because the dyes used to color the resin can’t be taken out. A year ago, the price was unusually low at 7.13 cents a pound. Then it steadily rose to 23.94 cents per pound in May before falling to 11.56 cents per pound. Colored HDPE’s price often reflects housing construction trends. New housing permits and construction starts are falling due to high housing costs. Prices will pick up when construction picks up.


Over the past year, steel can prices fell by a quarter to $152.81 per ton. Electric arc furnaces, the predominant steel making technology in the U.S., feast on any type of scrap steel. When Baltimore’s new Key Bridge is built, I hope that some of my steel cans will be in it. For now, however, steel markets are soft due to lack of demand.


That leaves us with the “meh” of natural HDPE (primarily milk jugs) and PP (primarily yogurt containers). Prices are low, but the packages are being recycled. HDPE is commonly used for detergent and shampoo bottles and many other packages. It can be dyed whatever color the package uses. A year ago, the major buyer for recycled natural HDPE stopped buying. Prices collapsed by 237 percent to 22.22 cents a pound. Since then, they have slowly increased. Still, at 37.19 cents per pound it only recently rose above its April 2020 low point. The price will get back to its normally higher levels when consumer brands decide they really want recycled content.


At 6.5 cents per pound, PP (primarily yogurt containers), is the least valuable plastic package in the bin. Its markets are primarily nonpackaging durable plastics. Sales of those products have been flat for some time, so has PP’s low price.



I’ve been tracking recycling markets for some time. Current markets are the most unusual – heck, the weirdest – I’ve seen. Part of that is COVID’s ongoing impact on the economy. Part is the stunning increase in paper recycled content capacity. Part is the ability of e-commerce companies to reduce their need for boxes. Part is the off and on demand for recycled plastic by consumer product companies. Sooner or later, this will all resolve itself. Until then, enjoy the ride.

Share Post

By Sophie Leone November 17, 2025
Currently employing almost 800 individuals, Maryland Environmental Service (MES) was established by the Maryland General Assembly in 1970. The goal of its formation was to assist with the improvement, management, and preservation of the air, land, and water quality, natural resources, and to promote the welfare and health of the citizens in Maryland. Dedicated to helping Maryland communities, MES is currently working on over 1000 environmental projects across the state and the Mid-Atlantic Region. Tackling environmental solutions through environmental justice is of high priority, “in FY23 and FY24, MES supported the preparation, writing, and submission of grant applications totaling over 163M dollars, and provided letters of support for many others.” NERC is thrilled to welcome Maryland Environmental Service as members. The work they do toward environmental justice and the help they provide their communities is a testament to their dedication. We look forward to supporting the important work they do. For more information on Maryland Environmental Service visit .
By Angelina Ruiz November 7, 2025
The Northeast Recycling Council (NERC) held their annual event from October 7 – 8 in Boston, MA. Renamed the Rethink Resource Use Conference, the name reflects an update in the approach of managing materials and discussing key strategies to drive sustainable practices forward in communities. “The new name, Rethink Resource Use, makes us consider how we can leave a more positive impact. NERC brings together professionals from across the materials management chain to improve management practices and ensure the health of the people and the environment. The event aims to mobilize others to take action and engage people in recycling programs, community engagement, trends, and more,” said NERC’s Executive Director, Megan Schulz-Fontes. Gathering together leaders from academia, government, and the sustainable materials industry, the conference was a great way to reconnect through networking and learning opportunities. RRU DAY ONE Material Shifts and New Terrain On Tuesday morning, October 7, Schulz-Fontes welcomed attendees to Boston and expressed that she was looking forward to having meaningful discussions and making connections with people around the industry. With great speakers from across the world, a wide range of important topics would be covered from innovations in infrastructure to technology. She also thanked talented colleagues who evaluated this event and made it even better, welcomed emerging professionals, and emphasized that it is important to acknowledge that human practices are shifting and evolving, and new programs and regulations are coming online to address the growing waste problem. We need to safeguard public health and biodiversity to help life on earth. Schulz-Fontes then introduced John Fischer, Deputy Division Director for Solid Waste Materials Management for the Massachusetts’ Department of Environmental Protection, who made the opening remarks, reflecting on Massachusetts’ Solid Waste master plan. He pointed out that they set an aggressive reduction goal—to reduce 1.7 tons of waste by 2030. While they have seen progress in certain areas, waste has continued to rise. So, they are reviewing it now to see how they can shift elements for greater progress. Massachusetts has been successful in food waste reduction (from small businesses and residents) with a waste disposal ban and recycling market grants, as well as loans to try to build the infrastructure. He said they have also seen success in their mattress disposal ban and an increase in textile recovery since implementation in 2022. There is also a long-standing disposal ban on construction waste to ensure more effective separation. In 2020, diversion was at 15% and increased to 20% in 2025. They would like to get to 30% by 2030. Fischer also pointed out that the Massachusetts DEP needs to take a comprehensive approach and grow market funding. They have collaborated with state and local health officials to create best practices with food containers and replace single waste food service ware to reusables. There are growing suites of market recycling program grants, including market reduction innovation grants launched this year. Smaller and more flexible grants could grow waste diversion over time and help facilities grow at scale. He said that while they are looking at doing the best they can to manage waste, the goal is to learn from colleagues in other states and in the business communities. David Allaway, Senior Policy Analyst, from the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, gave the keynote address, first pointing out that about 20 years ago, they started taking a deeper look at their solid waste and recycling program and the connection with the waste and climate situation. Because of that, it caused a shift in programming. Going back to 2004, the Department was tasked with looking at solid waste management opportunities—recycling and waste prevention was primarily reducing in other states but not Oregon. The community was ready for climate protection, but emissions reductions don’t count. That was the beginning of Oregon’s Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory (CBEI) and the results were an eye opener and the inventory has been updated since to look at current trends. The key takeaways from this was that all studies point in the same direction—materials matter! The production and use of materials does have a profound impact on our environment. Most impacts occur upstream of use and disposal. Recycling and composting can be helpful but alone are insufficient. From this, Oregon’s 2050 Vision and Framework for Action was born. This also included end of life materials. Allaway explained that the legislative report and technical supports were published last fall. For Oregon: Materials are driving growth in emissions Most emissions occur pre-purchase (most in food and vehicles and parts) Sector based emissions have flattened while consumption-based emissions have grown Emissions are out of state but not out of reach Oregon Comprehensive Climate Action Plan (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle, and Solid Waste Management) includes: Landfill methane reductions Recycling improvements Expand composting Prevent wasting of food Plant-rich diets Upstream packaging EPR Reduce embodies carbon He pointed out that not all materials are equally beneficial to recycling, and not all recycling pathways are equally beneficial. Maximizing recycling is not the same as optimizing recycling. Lifecycle impacts versus material attributes begs the question; how well do popular material attributes correlate with reduced environmental impacts? When comparing different packages based on recyclability, recyclable packages are better for the environment, however, downstream impacts must be taken into consideration. Recycling and composting are a means to an end—the conservation of resources and reduction of pollution, however, not all are effective. Design your programs to maximize them instead of just chasing tonnage diversion targets. Is education effective? It depends on how recycling is communicated and how local authorities think about it and treat it. Whether it is advanced through policy through broader benefits, it depends on you and what choices you make and the paths take in the coming years. Discussions on EPR After the welcome remarks and morning keynote, focus turned to “EPR for Packaging State of Mind: Lessons and Progress in the Northeast” Moderated by Kevin Budris, Deputy Director for Just Zero, the discussion featured Jason Bergquist, Vice President of U.S. Operations for RecycleMe; Erin Victor, PhD, Member of the Senator George J Mitchell Center Research Team at the University of Maine; Shannon McDonald, Natural Resource Planner at the Maryland Department of the Environment; and David Allaway, Senior Policy Analyst for Oregon Department of Environmental Quality. Bergquist kicked it off by talking about the current EPR landscape in the U.S. Seven EPR packaging bills have been passed and 10 states have introduced legislation for EPR for packaging from 2024 to 2025; this number continues to rise. Those that have been signed into law include Oregon and Maine (2021), Colorado and California (2022), Minnesota (2024), and Washington and Maryland (2025), with implementation ranging from July 2025 to July 2029. California has the most ambitious goals—by 2032 100% of all packaging must be recyclable or compostable, 65% of all single-use plastic packaging to be recycled, and there should be a 25% reduction in packaging. He said that challenges producers face in the west are when is a producer a producer, when is a package a package, where should the focus be (fees, targets, modulation plans). There are always different definitions, two different scopes, bottle bill vs non-bottle bill, primary, secondary, tertiary—which is in scope? Victor covered the research she’s been doing the past couple of years. Her research approach included a qualitative case study of the emergence of Maine’s EPR for packaging legislation situated within a larger 24-month ethnographic research project on the politics of disposable packaging. Maine is a primarily rural state and much of it relies on drop off centers. However, the state has yet to meet the 50% waste diversion goal, so something more needs to be done. She did explain that there have been disruptions to Maine’s materials management system that have been a challenge: centralized waste planning agencies disbanded, Green Fence/National Sword, COVID, and the shuttering of the Coastal Resource of Maine facility in Hampden. Maine’s packaging journey started in 2019 when the DEP recommended EPR for packaging. In 2021, the state passed the first in the nation EPR law, the rules were adopted in 2024, and in 2025, the goal is to define ‘readily recyclable’ and selecting a stewardship organization. She emphasized that it is critical to have a strong commitment to stakeholder outreach, maintain municipal operational control over materials management, look at the need for more transparent and robust data and the burden of reporting (for both producers and municipalities), and consider what elements of packaging regulation to address through market-based approaches versus command-and-control regulations. Fortunately, LD1423 was introduced this year which really updated and harmonized the program. She said that she is currently working on estimating the impact of tradeoffs in U.S. EPR rulemaking scenarios. Read the full article on Waste Advantage.
By Sophie Leone October 29, 2025
The Pressurized Cylinder Industry Association is a 501C(6) trade association comprised of leading pressurized cylinder producers. They are “working to advance industry interests through advocacy, sustainable stewardship development, education, and innovative collaboration on shared challenges that impact our industry, our customers, and consumers.” Advocacy, Sustainable Stewardship, Education, and innovation are the pillars of the work they do, including collaborating with state legislators, regulatory officials, and other industry associations, particularly related to Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) policy work. To expand their impact on EPR legislation, PCIA established a nonprofit Producer Responsibility Organization (PRO) called the Cylinder Collective, which recently launched its first cylinder collection program in the State of Connecticut. “The passage of the legislation in CT, as well as the subsequent implementation of the CT statewide cylinder collection program, allowed PCIA and its staff to gain experience in developing the local partnerships required to implement sustainable solutions at the local level.” David Keeling, Executive Director, Pressurized Cylinder Industry Association and The Cylinder Collective. NERC is thrilled to welcome the Pressurized Cylinder Industry Association to our diverse group of trade association members. We look forward to supporting their industry work and education efforts through collaboration and action. For more information on the Pressurized Cylinder Industry Association visit .